As January 2024 already comes to an end, a myriad of expert predictions and forecasts shape our expectations for the global economy, financial markets, geopolitics, and technological advancements. In its fifth year, the Prediction Consensus, a part of the comprehensive 2024 Global Forecast Series, consolidates insights from over 700 forecasts, creating a comprehensive overview of anticipated trends for the year.

Economic Outlook: Economic forecasts for 2024 are a focal point, with consensus on several key indicators. Inflation, after a steady decline in 2023, is expected to continue cooling off towards target levels. While some caution that reaching these targets could be challenging, few anticipate a resurgence of inflation akin to 2022.

Interest Rates: With the expected moderation of inflation, major financial institutions project interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England by mid-2024. Analysts provide varying estimates, ranging from three to six cuts, while Federal Reserve board members themselves forecast two to three cuts.

Market Trends: Anticipating interest rate cuts, experts cautiously predict positive outcomes for both stocks and bonds in 2024. Falling rates are likely to result in lower bond yields, while equities may benefit from the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI). Geopolitical risks drive a common theme of portfolio diversification among investors.

Real GDP Growth: Global GDP growth forecasts for 2024 range from 2.5-3%, slightly below the 10-year average. The U.S. is expected to experience slowed growth, with the IMF forecasting a decrease from 2.4% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024. Notably, experts predict India to outpace China in real GDP growth, influenced by shifts in manufacturing and foreign investment.

Geopolitical Predictions: Geopolitical tensions remain high, with ongoing conflicts and potential escalations in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. Global elections in key countries further contribute to the uncertainty, making geopolitical risks a top concern for experts in 2024. Marine shipping disruptions caused by strikes and retaliatory actions add to the geopolitical complexities.

AI in 2024: After a breakout year in 2023, artificial intelligence faces challenges in 2024, including regulatory concerns and legal disputes related to training data. The potential misuse of AI in global elections prompts calls for stricter regulations. The EU is expected to take a more assertive stance on AI regulation compared to the U.S.

Interconnected Predictions: The interconnected nature of global factors is highlighted in 2024, with conflicts in the Middle East affecting shipping insurance costs, potentially driving up inflation and influencing central bank decisions on interest rates. The year is marked by a delicate balance between positive forecasts for AI advancements and concerns about potential disruptions to the job market.

While global affairs have grown increasingly polarized, the predictions and forecasts for 2024 emphasize the profound interdependence of the global economy, markets, geopolitics, and technological advancements. As the year unfolds, the world navigates through a landscape of interconnected possibilities, both promising and challenging.

Best regards,

Sharon Ben-David

Your Safe Money Lady™

Protecting Your Nest Egg, Inc.

Phone: (954) 261-5200